In my previous post, I introduced the quantitative rating system I’m using this year as a guide for filling out my bracket. I didn’t go strictly by the book – I went with the lower rated team on a small number of occasions. I did this mostly because the system’s picks were too boring (not enough upsets). Without further ado…
My first discretionary call was taking Yale over Baylor. I couldn’t NOT pick a 12-5 upset, and according to my system, this is the most probable one.
I then took Cincinnati over Oregon in the second round, even though Oregon is rated higher. It seems like this year has the potential to be really bloody, and I doubt all the 1 seeds will make it through to the next weekend. I have Oregon as the lowest rated 1 seed (by a fair margin), so I knocked those ducks out.
I also felt a need to have at least one low rated seed (10+) in the sweet 16 (I expect there will be more than 1, possibly several). Gonzaga looked like the most probable team to pull this off.
Also, though the ratings on my previous post show Kansas as the #1 team, I reran the algorithm after eliminating the Michigan St games that Denzel Valentine missed due to injury, and that change put the Spartans on top. Was I cheating to get the team I wanted to pick as the champs into the #1 slot in my system? Yeah, sure, maybe. But Valentine is arguably the best player in the nation, and missing him obviously hurt their rating.
One final note before I display the game-by-game win probabilities throughout the tournament (adhering to my system’s calls): I did another trial with my algorithm where I replaced the margin-of-victory game probability extrapolation with one that ignores the score. I noticed a couple of teams rated much higher in those results, and I think they could be dangerous – St. Joe’s and Seton Hall.
Below, you can see the game-by-game probabilities by round given by my system:
First Round
Kansas 93.21% Austin Peay 6.79%
Connecticut 56.33% Colorado 43.67%
Maryland 65.78% San Diego St 34.22%
California 63.98% Hawaii 36.02%
Arizona 53.62% Wichita St 46.38%
Miami FL 80.45% Buffalo 19.55%
Iowa 67.52% Temple 32.48%
Villanova 87.00% UNC Asheville 13.00%
Oregon 92.62% Holy Cross 7.38%
Cincinnati 54.43% St Joseph’s PA 45.57%
Baylor 63.76% Yale 36.24%
Duke 74.28% UNC Wilmington 25.72%
Texas 68.31% Northern Iowa 31.69%
Texas A&M 80.12% WI Green Bay 19.88%
VA Commonwealth 57.44% Oregon St 42.56%
Oklahoma 81.15% CS Bakersfield 18.85%
North Carolina 91.22% FL Gulf Coast 8.78%
USC 57.14% Providence 42.86%
Indiana 76.02% Chattanooga 23.98%
Kentucky 75.99% Stony Brook 24.01%
Notre Dame 53.04% Michigan 46.96%
West Virginia 74.10% SF Austin 25.90%
Pittsburgh 54.58% Wisconsin 45.42%
Xavier 81.93% Weber St 18.07%
Virginia 91.86% Hampton 8.14%
Butler 54.25% Texas Tech 45.75%
Purdue 73.95% Ark Little Rock 26.05%
Iowa St 74.52% Iona 25.48%
Gonzaga 51.98% Seton Hall 48.02%
Utah 76.29% Fresno St 23.71%
Syracuse 53.28% Dayton 46.72%
Michigan St 88.23% MTSU 11.77%
Second Round
Kansas 69.73% Connecticut 30.27%
Maryland 51.87% California 48.13%
Arizona 50.69% Miami FL 49.31%
Villanova 66.34% Iowa 33.66%
Oregon 59.89% Cincinnati 40.11%
Duke 53.83% Baylor 46.17%
Texas A&M 57.86% Texas 42.14%
Oklahoma 65.14% VA Commonwealth 34.86%
North Carolina 70.49% USC 29.51%
Kentucky 52.76% Indiana 47.24%
West Virginia 68.30% Notre Dame 31.70%
Xavier 59.40% Pittsburgh 40.60%
Virginia 66.83% Butler 33.17%
Purdue 55.01% Iowa St 44.99%
Utah 53.54% Gonzaga 46.46%
Michigan St 75.56% Syracuse 24.44%
Sweet Sixteen
Kansas 65.72% Maryland 34.28%
Villanova 59.12% Arizona 40.88%
Duke 51.58% Oregon 48.42%
Oklahoma 57.97% Texas A&M 42.03%
North Carolina 58.84% Kentucky 41.16%
West Virginia 59.09% Xavier 40.91%
Virginia 54.40% Purdue 45.60%
Michigan St 68.07% Utah 31.93%
Elite Eight
Kansas 53.32% Villanova 46.68%
Oklahoma 54.64% Duke 45.36%
North Carolina 52.13% West Virginia 47.87%
Michigan St 56.94% Virginia 43.06%
Final Four
Kansas 57.20% Oklahoma 42.80%
Michigan St 53.62% North Carolina 46.38%
Championship
Michigan St 51.71% Kansas 48.29%